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Motorized Bicycles

Motorized bicycles can be pedaled as standard bicycles or they can be ridden with the use of a gasoline- or electric-powered engine. In 2011, Ford Motor Company introduced the E-Bike at the Frankfurt Motor Show. This bicycle has a lithium-ion battery similar to ones in newer hybrid and electric automobiles. Market share for motorized bicycles is increasing worldwide and expected to grow steadily through the 2010s.

Geographic reference: World
Year: 2010 and forecasted 2018
Market size: 30 million and 47 million units respectively with an estimated total revenue of $11.9 billion by 2018.
Source: Carrie Jones, “A Ford Bicycle,” My Ford, Spring 2012, page 9, and a report by Pike Research, “Annual Sales of Electric Bicycles Will Surpass 47 Million by 2018,” March 27, 2012, available online here. The picture comes from Ford’s media site, here.
Posted on August 7, 2012

Crop Insurance

The drought being experienced this year in most of the United States will have an impact on the cost of food in the not distant future. Farmers will have a difficult year, but how difficult? As it turns out, less than one might expect. Over the last decades there has been a significant increase in the use of crop insurance in the United States and an escalation of the subsidies received from the federal government to cover crop insurance premiums. In 2011, the federal government picks up 60% of crop insurance premiums. In fact, crop and revenue insurance now represents the primary federal support for farm income, paying $5.2 billion in direct payments to farmers and $7.4 billion in insurance premium subsidies.

Today’s market size post lists the number of acres of farmland covered by crop insurance in 1981 and 2011 as well as the total insured liability each year. The level of government subsidies for crop insurance has risen quite substancially over this period. Total premiums paid for crop insurance in 2011 were approximately $12.3 billion, of which the federal government picked up 60%, or $7.4 billion.

Our hope is that all those impacted by this drought are spared serious damage and that starvation in distant places of this ever more connected world does not rise as a result of crop shortfalls in the United States.

Geographic reference: United States
Year: 1981 and 2011
Market size: Acres; 45 million and 262 million respectively
Market size: Insured liability; $6 billion and $113 billion respectively
Source: Keith Collins and Harum Bulut, “Crop Insurance and the Future Farm Safety Net,” February 10, 2012, available online here and Andrew G. Simpson, “Cap on Subsidy of Crop Insurance Premium Would Save $1 Billion: GAO,” April 13, 2012, available online here.
Original source: FarmDocDaily, Insurance Journal, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the U.S. Government Accounting Office.
Posted on August 1, 2012

Garden Mulch from Cypress

After a summer break, we’re ready to start posting market size entries again.

Garden mulch comes in many forms: leaves, grass clippings, pine needles, wood chips, and tree bark, just to name a few. One popular type of mulch, cypress mulch, is made from harvested trees in the Southern United States. At one time, cypress trees, wildlife-friendly and one of the most hurricane-resistant trees, were plentiful on the Gulf Coast. Many were thousands of years old. After Congress passed the Swampland Act in 1850, deeding millions of acres of wetlands to the states, many of those acres were sold to corporations for 75 cents an acre or less. By 1930, most of the virgin cypress were logged. In the past, cypress was logged for home building and flooring, but more recently, thousands of acres of cypress are being cut down to create garden mulch. Data are on an annual basis.

Geographic ref.: United States
Year: 2012
Market Size: $750 million
Source: Selcraig, Bruce, “The Swamp Man,” Sierra, May/June 2012, pages 34-39
Posted on July 31, 2012

Marathon Races

By way of tipping our hat to one of our own who ran in a half marathon over the weekend past, today’s market size report is all about marathon races run in the United States. While still an elite group, marathon running has been gaining in popularity over the last two decades and the number of races has been growing steadily.

Congratulations, Bob!

Geographic reference: United States
Year: 2000 and 2011
Market size: Marathon races, 300 and 720 repsectively
Market size: Number of runners who finished a marathon: 353,000 and 518,000 respectively
Source: Running USA’s Annual Marathon Report, February 26, 2012, available online here.
Original source: Running USA
Now, how shall we categorize this entry… humm…?
Posted on June 4, 2012

Plain Glass Eyewear

What was once seen as a sign of nerdishness has become a fashion statement. When basketball stars like LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, Kevin Garnett and Kevin Durant are sporting big, black, chunky eyeglasses for the fun of it—meaning the eye glasses are not prescription glasses at all but frames containing plain glass lenses—eye glass frame makers must be pleased. Market analysts point to a number of high profile persons—Meryl Streep and Demi Moore from the Holliwood scene, Sarah Palin and Rachael Maddow—who wear eye glasses and whose eyewear styles are seen as part of the motivation behind this growing market for fashion based eyewear. Will it be a passing fade as so many fashion statements are or a longer lasting trend as those wearing plain glass eyewear get older and start needing to put prescription lenses into their statement accessories?

Today’s market size is based on calculations made with survey results from a Vision Countil of America survey and U.S. Census Bureau population statistics. It shows the number of U.S. adult residents who report having worn plain glass eyewear as a fashion statement during the period 2008 and 2011.

Geographic reference: United States
Year: 2011
Market size: 16.3 million people aged 18 or over
Source: Adam Tschorn, “A New Essential?” The Republic, Columbus, Indiana, May 7, 2012, available online here. Picture comes thanks to this Warby Parker web site.
Original source: Vision Council of America and the U.S. Census Bureau
Posted on June 1, 2012

Cement in the United States

The recession of 2007-2009 was deep and hit many sectors hard. The construction sector was one of the hardest hit and all the suupliers to it have been struggling to find enough stability to weather the downturn which has yet to turn around. But even knowing these facts, we were surprised by the stunningly sever downturns seen in the Spainish cement industry since 2007—as reported in the last post. It made us wonder how the U.S. cement industry has fared during the same period. The graph here charts U.S. cement consumption for a similar time period as the one in our last post on Spain.

The differences in these charts are very interesting and very telling. In the United States, the build up in consumption during the housing boom was strong but not nearly as sharp as the build up in Spain. The declines in both countries were sharp and abrupt as the housing bubble burst and the banking crisis began. However, in Spain the post 2007 decline was sharper, more like a fall from a cliff and it has continued to fall sharply since whereas in the United States the decline leveled off in 2009 and 2010 and actually showed signs in 2011 of possibly beginning to recover, if only slighly.

Today’s market size post shows the overall value of cement sales—portland and masonry cement—in the United States in 2006 and 2011.

Geographic reference: United States
Year: 2006 and 2011
Market size: $12.6 billion and $6.6 billion respectively
Source: “Cement – Statistics and Information,” Mineral Industry Survey, a series of reports produced by the U.S. Geological Survey, made available online and last updated on May 25, 2011. Here is a link to the USGS site.
Original source: U.S. Department of the Interior
Posted on May 29, 2012

Cement in Spain

We hear much these days about Europe and the economic struggles it is having. Watching from afar—or at least as far as one can be in our very intertwined, economically globalized world—we tend to see primarily the outlines of the big, macro picture. A quick glance at Spanish cement demand since 2007 reminds one of how the overall downturn is hitting some sectors with special ferocity.

While many industrialized nations experienced a construction boom during the 2001-2007 period, Spain’s was one of the larger. Consequently, it’s cement industry grew at a robust rate for a decade. Since peaking in 2007 it has shrunk dramatically and significant declines in early 2012, on a year-over-year basis, suggest that the shrinking is far from complete. In fact, rates of consumption when measured on a per capita basis have not been as low in Spain since 1966.

Today’s market size post shows the demand for cement in Spain in 2007 and 2011. The graph shows Spanish cement consumption over a two decade period.

Geographic reference: Spain
Year: 2007 and 2011
Market size: 56.0 and 20.2 million metric tons respectively
Source: “Holcim Spain to cut 35% of Workforce,” Global Cement, May 23, 2012, available online here. and updates from the Monthly Retail Trade Reports from the same reporting series, U.S. Census Bureau, available oneline here. The graph was created from data provided by Oficemen, the Spanish Cement industry association, Agrupación de fabricantes de cemento de España, available online here.
Original source: Global Cement and Oficemen
Posted on May 25, 2012

Solar Panels

On May 17, 2012, the U.S. Commerce Department announced the imposition of antidumping tariffs on solar
panels imported to the United States from several Chinese companies. China exports 95% of the solar panels it makes worldwide. In the United States, Chinese made solar cell imports more than doubled between 2010 and 2011 while the wholesale price of solar cells in the United States continued a multi year fall. The price of solar panels is based on their electrical capacity. In 2008, the average price per watt of capacity was $3.30 and in January 2012 that price had fallen to $1.20. The lower prices have fueled the market and led to quickly rising installations but they have also crippled the domestic panel manufacturing industry. Therefore, the new tariffs are welcomed by one part of the industry—manufacturers—and disliked by another—installers.

Today’s market size is the value of solar cells imported to the United States from China in 2011.

Geographic reference: United States
Year: 2011
Market size: $3.1 billion
Source: Keith Bradsher and Diane Cardwell, “Chinese Solar Panels Face Big Tariffs,” New York Times, May 18, 2012, page B1, available online here. Also from Keith Bradsher, “U.S. Solar Panel Makers Say China Violated Trade Rules,” New York Times, October 19, 2011, available here.
Original source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Posted on May 22, 2012

Dolls, Games, and Toys

The United States is the largest toy and game market in the world, with an estimated retail sales value in 2010 of $22 billion. This estimated value includes video game consoles but does not include the games themselves, which are categorized as software but by some estimates would add another $10 to the actual value of the dolls, games, and toys market. Of course, if we included things that somebody considered a toy while another considered a vehicle of some sort—boat, bike, snowmobile—it would be an even larger market… Yes, defining the market is key, which is part of what makes a system like the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS)—used by Canada, Mexico, and the United States—so useful.

Today’s market size post breaks the U.S. dolls, games, and toys industry down into three categories, U.S. manufacturer shipments, imports, and exorts. The fact that U.S. made product is valued by the Census Burea at less the value of exports is the result of what is called re-exportation; some of what is imported is turned right around and exported. A topic for anohter day.

Geographic reference: United States
Year: 2002 and 2010
Market size: Domestic production at wholesale: $4.85 and $2.86 billion
Market size: Exports F.A.S.: $1.16 and $3.77 billion
Market size: Imports C.I.F.: $12.06 and $22.30 billion
Source: “Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries: 2010 and 2009,” Annual Survey of Manufactures 2010, available from the Census Bureau web site here. and data from the U.S. International Trade Statistics database on NAICS industry 339932. The International Trade Statstics database is available online here..
Original source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Posted on May 5, 2012

E-Commerce Writ Large

The announcement this week that two large players in the Internet world have made billion dollar plus acquisitions made us think again about e-commerce. It is a term that is used regularly but one suspects that its meaning is somewhat subjective and based on the user’s own concept of the business. E-commerce can be viewed, as it often is, as electronic shopping. Of course, that might more accurately be called e-shopping or e-retail. Commercial exchange is much bigger than that.

By taking the electronically transacted portions of each of the primarily commercial sectors of the economy, we see (in the pie chart) that e-retail makes up only a small share of the more broadly defined e-commerce. E-wholesale and e-manufacturing account for the lion’s share of the total but they are not new and shiny and so attract far less media attention or investor interest.

Even within the retail sector as a whole, e-commerce accounts for just under 5 percent of the whole. That percentage is, of course, growing, and growing rapidly. It is this fact that must be causing companies like Facebook to spend in excess of $1 billion on a company with a popular photo sharing app (Instagram). Worth noting is the fact that in some retail sectors, e-commerce does play a far larger role than the 5 percent it represents of the sector at large: electronics and books are two such.

Today’s market size numbers measure the size of the U.S. retail sector in the 4th quarter of 2011, and the size of the e-commerce portion of that total.

Geographic reference: United States
Year: 2011, 4th quarter
Market size: Retail, $1.072 trillion, E-commerce: $51.38 billion (4.8% of total retail)
Source: Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, 4th Quareter 2011, U.S. Census Bureau, available online here.
Original source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Posted on April 11, 2012